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"Only the Paranoid Survive: A Manager's Guide to Training (New Edition)" Reading Notes

"Only the Paranoid Survive: The Training Manual for Special Managers (New Edition)" Reading Notes#

Author: Andy Grove
Reading Time: 1 hour

These are the notes and excerpts I recorded while reading "Only the Paranoid Survive: The Training Manual for Special Managers (New Edition)" on WeChat Reading.


Chapter 2: 10x Speed Changes#

· The strength, vitality, and capability of existing competitors: Are there many competitors? Do they have strong capital? Are they clearly targeting you?
· The strength, vitality, and capability of the company's suppliers: Are there many suppliers, giving your business enough options; or are there only a few that can choke your throat? Are they provocative and greedy, or more cautious and prudent, using a long-term evaluation of customer situations as business guidance?
· The strength, vitality, and capability of the company's corporate clients: Are there many corporate clients, or does the business rely on one or two major clients? Do they blame you due to fierce competition, or do they adopt a more moderate attitude?
· The strength, vitality, and capability of potential competitors: These competitors have not yet emerged, but if the situation changes, they may join in. In this view, they may be stronger than existing competitors, have more substantial funding, and adopt a tougher stance.
· The possibility of your product or service being produced or delivered in other ways: This is often called "substitution," and I believe this is the most fatal point. New technologies and methods can disrupt the old order, establish new rules, and cause dramatic changes in the business environment. This is similar to the impact of road and air transport on rail transport, container shipping on traditional sea transport, supermarkets on small shops, microprocessors on computing, and digital media on entertainment. Recently, a newly improved competitiveness theory has added a sixth factor on top of these five:
· Complementary business factors: Complementary businesses are other companies that provide complementary products to customers. Each company's products must combine with those of other companies to exert greater effects. Some products cannot even be used without combining with others. Cars need gasoline, and gasoline needs cars. Computers cannot do without software, and software cannot do without computers.

· The strength, vitality, and capability of existing competitors: Are there many competitors? Do they have strong capital? Are they clearly targeting you?
· The strength, vitality, and capability of the company's suppliers: Are there many suppliers, giving your business enough options; or are there only a few that can choke your throat? Are they provocative and greedy, or more cautious and prudent, using a long-term evaluation of customer situations as business guidance?
· The strength, vitality, and capability of the company's corporate clients: Are there many corporate clients, or does the business rely on one or two major clients? Do they blame you due to fierce competition, or do they adopt a more moderate attitude?
· The strength, vitality, and capability of potential competitors: These competitors have not yet emerged, but if the situation changes, they may join in. In this view, they may be stronger than existing competitors, have more substantial funding, and adopt a tougher stance.
· The possibility of your product or service being produced or delivered in other ways: This is often called "substitution," and I believe this is the most fatal point. New technologies and methods can disrupt the old order, establish new rules, and cause dramatic changes in the business environment. This is similar to the impact of road and air transport on rail transport, container shipping on traditional sea transport, supermarkets on small shops, microprocessors on computing, and digital media on entertainment. Recently, a newly improved competitiveness theory has added a sixth factor on top of these five:
· Complementary business factors: Complementary businesses are other companies that provide complementary products to customers. Each company's products must combine with those of other companies to exert greater effects. Some products cannot even be used without combining with others. Cars need gasoline, and gasoline needs cars. Computers cannot do without software, and software cannot do without computers.


Chapter 3: The Shape of the Computer Industry#

First, do not blindly seek novelty. Do not improve merely to defeat competitors; consider whether it can also bring substantial benefits to customers. The failures in the history of the personal computer industry are numerous, as manufacturers were superficially driven by the desire to produce "better PCs," while actually deviating from the mainstream industry standards. However, the quality of PCs is closely tied to compatibility, so "better PCs" of varying quality became a technical oxymoron. Second, in this super-competitive horizontal world, when technological innovations or other fundamental changes occur, opportunities knock at your door. The company that reacts first to this opportunity, and only the company that reacts first while others hesitate, truly possesses the opportunity, seizing the moment and defeating competitors. In this industry, a time advantage is the safest way to gain market share. Conversely, if one goes against the new technological trend, regardless of how noble their intentions are or how great their efforts, they will face failure because they waste precious time. Third, price according to what the market can bear, price according to product quantity, and then strive to reduce costs in order to profit from your minimal investment and appropriate pricing. This can help you achieve economies of scale. Necessary large-scale investments will be effective and meaningful because, as a large-scale investor, you have the ability to expand and profit from your investments, spreading and recovering costs. In contrast, cost-based pricing often leads you into niche markets, where you can only capture specific profits, which is not very profitable in today's mass production industries.

First, do not blindly seek novelty. Do not improve merely to defeat competitors; consider whether it can also bring substantial benefits to customers. The failures in the history of the personal computer industry are numerous, as manufacturers were superficially driven by the desire to produce "better PCs," while actually deviating from the mainstream industry standards. However, the quality of PCs is closely tied to compatibility, so "better PCs" of varying quality became a technical oxymoron. Second, in this super-competitive horizontal world, when technological innovations or other fundamental changes occur, opportunities knock at your door. The company that reacts first to this opportunity, and only the company that reacts first while others hesitate, truly possesses the opportunity, seizing the moment and defeating competitors. In this industry, a time advantage is the safest way to gain market share. Conversely, if one goes against the new technological trend, regardless of how noble their intentions are or how great their efforts, they will face failure because they waste precious time. Third, price according to what the market can bear, price according to product quantity, and then strive to reduce costs in order to profit from your minimal investment and appropriate pricing. This can help you achieve economies of scale. Necessary large-scale investments will be effective and meaningful because, as a large-scale investor, you have the ability to expand and profit from your investments, spreading and recovering costs. In contrast, cost-based pricing often leads you into niche markets, where you can only capture specific profits, which is not very profitable in today's mass production industries.


Chapter 4: They Are Everywhere#

He believes that business failures are either because companies have deviated from their users, meaning they have arbitrarily changed previously effective strategies (significant changes), or because their users have abandoned them (subtle changes).

It also reveals a truth from another perspective: the brilliant stars of the previous era are often the last to adapt to change. They are the last to yield to the principle of strategic turning points, suffering more devastating losses than most.

He believes that business failures are either because companies have deviated from their users, meaning they have arbitrarily changed previously effective strategies (significant changes), or because their users have abandoned them (subtle changes).

It also reveals a truth from another perspective: the brilliant stars of the previous era are often the last to adapt to change. They are the last to yield to the principle of strategic turning points, suffering more devastating losses than most.


Chapter 6: How to Detect Them?#

Management master Peter Drucker once quoted a definition of entrepreneurs, saying that entrepreneurs are those who shift resources from low-yield projects to high-yield projects. A passionate and intelligent middle manager handles the resources under his control in this way. These resources can be the allocation of silicon wafers by production planners or the arrangement of his own work and energy. Are they intentionally planting flowers, or inadvertently inserting willows? At first glance, it seems unintentional, but I believe it is actually a wise choice.

However, if your intuition suggests that a tenfold improvement is enough to excite people and become a new threat factor, you are likely on the verge of observing the beginning of a strategic turning point. Therefore, you should train yourself to think deeply about issues, distinguishing the pros and cons of the initial model from the long-term potential and significance of the product or technology.

Modern management rules suggest that we should hold data during debates or arguments. This is good advice. Often, people substitute opinions for facts and emotions for analysis. However, data reflects the past, while strategic turning points indicate the future. When data shows that Japanese memory manufacturers are starting to dominate, we are already in a struggle for survival. You should be clear about when to use data and when to leave it. This may sound somewhat capricious, but you indeed need to learn how to argue with data. Sometimes, experience tells you that a certain factor is currently weak and appears insignificant in data analysis, but it has great development potential and will change your business rules in the future. In other words, when dealing with those nascent influencing trends, you may need to step out of rigid data analysis and rely more on intuition and observations to make judgments.

Management master Peter Drucker once quoted a definition of entrepreneurs, saying that entrepreneurs are those who shift resources from low-yield projects to high-yield projects. A passionate and intelligent middle manager handles the resources under his control in this way. These resources can be the allocation of silicon wafers by production planners or the arrangement of his own work and energy. Are they intentionally planting flowers, or inadvertently inserting willows? At first glance, it seems unintentional, but I believe it is actually a wise choice.

However, if your intuition suggests that a tenfold improvement is enough to excite people and become a new threat factor, you are likely on the verge of observing the beginning of a strategic turning point. Therefore, you should train yourself to think deeply about issues, distinguishing the pros and cons of the initial model from the long-term potential and significance of the product or technology.

Modern management rules suggest that we should hold data during debates or arguments. This is good advice. Often, people substitute opinions for facts and emotions for analysis. However, data reflects the past, while strategic turning points indicate the future. When data shows that Japanese memory manufacturers are starting to dominate, we are already in a struggle for survival. You should be clear about when to use data and when to leave it. This may sound somewhat capricious, but you indeed need to learn how to argue with data. Sometimes, experience tells you that a certain factor is currently weak and appears insignificant in data analysis, but it has great development potential and will change your business rules in the future. In other words, when dealing with those nascent influencing trends, you may need to step out of rigid data analysis and rely more on intuition and observations to make judgments.


Chapter 7: Let Chaos Reign#

This is a crucial point. The replacement of corporate leadership is often not to seek more astute and capable leaders, but because it is necessary to find someone who has no emotional ties to the company's past to manage the company.

This is a crucial point. The replacement of corporate leadership is often not to seek more astute and capable leaders, but because it is necessary to find someone who has no emotional ties to the company's past to manage the company.


Chapter 8: Seeking Order in Chaos#

Why are leaders often unwilling to lead others? I find it puzzling. In the past, it may have been because leaders had to make decisions while colleagues, staff, and employees were still arguing about which way to go, and this decision had to be decisive and clear, yet its success or failure would only be seen years later. This undoubtedly requires immense confidence and courage, a severe test for leaders. In contrast, downsizing a company is much easier; a lack of confidence is not a big problem—closing factories and laying off employees has immediate effects, and financial personnel readily approve it, making it a risk-free good decision.

The consequences of acting too early are far less severe than those of acting too late. If action is taken too early, the existing industry is still sound, and even if a wrong decision is made, it can be easily corrected in time.

Each company's golden action time is not the same. Some companies know when they should respond quickly and take action. They can wait for other companies to test the limits of technology and the capacity of the market before following, catching up, and surpassing them. I call this strategy the "taillight" method. Driving in fog is much easier when following the taillight of the car in front. The danger of the "taillight" strategy is that once you catch up and surpass the car in front, there are no taillights to guide you, leading to a loss of confidence and ability to find a new direction.

Pursuing a strategic goal, especially in a life-and-death competition, is not easy; it requires all the energy of the enterprise. There are several reasons for this. First, without a clear strategic direction, it is difficult to lead the enterprise out of the valley of death. A lot of energy has already been consumed to reach the current location, and employees are disheartened and blaming each other in the valley of death. In this case, even if the goal is clear and singular, reaching the other side is difficult; if there are multiple goals at the same time, it is impossible to lead this demoralized team.

If the path is wrong, you will die. However, most companies do not die due to choosing the wrong path, but due to indecision, wasting precious resources in the process of hesitant decision-making, ruining their future. The most dangerous thing is to remain stagnant.

When dealing with a large number of people, you should make every effort to communicate with them, clarify your opinions, and do whatever it takes. Constantly speak to employees, go to their workshops, gather them together, and repeatedly explain your intentions (pay special attention to answering questions like "So this means...," as this is often the best way to gain others' understanding). Your new ideas and arguments will take time to be accepted, but you will find that constant repetition will clarify the concept of the new direction and help employees understand it more thoroughly. Therefore, try to talk more, answer more questions; it may seem like a few old sayings turned upside down, but it actually serves to emphasize strategic thinking.

What we need is a balanced interaction between knowledgeable yet narrow-minded middle managers and visionary, big-picture senior managers to complement each other and act together. The opposition between the two can lead to intense debates, but it is through debate that everyone sees the clear picture on the other side of the valley of death, which is more conducive to determining the direction of progress. If a company can consistently handle these two developmental stages—debate (chaos reigns) and purposeful advancement (clearing chaos)—then it can be considered a strong and adaptive organization. Such organizations have two characteristics: 1. They tolerate debate and even encourage it. Intense and uncompromising debates revolve around issues that need to be studied, and participants in the debate can speak freely regardless of their position or background. 2. They can make clear decisions, accept clear decisions, and unite the entire organization to support that decision. Organizations with these two characteristics are better equipped to handle strategic turning points.

The scene on the other side of the valley of death represents a new industry order that is difficult to foresee before the transformation occurs. When managers have not seen this new world, they do not have a conceptual map in their minds. The process of crossing a strategic turning point must go through a period of confusion, experimentation, and chaos before thoughts can be clarified, a single direction determined, and the layers of fog cleared to reach the destination on the other side of the valley of death. We must listen to the prophecies of Cassandras, actively provoke debate, and continuously explain the company's new direction to make it clearer. Economic losses and personnel changes are inevitable. We must also recognize and accept the fact that not everyone can safely reach the other side; those who cannot survive will face a life that is vastly different from before. Undoubtedly, crossing the valley of death set by strategic turning points is the greatest ordeal that an organizational enterprise must endure. However, when the 10x factors press us, we have no choice but to adapt or succumb to inevitable decline.

Why are leaders often unwilling to lead others? I find it puzzling. In the past, it may have been because leaders had to make decisions while colleagues, staff, and employees were still arguing about which way to go, and this decision had to be decisive and clear, yet its success or failure would only be seen years later. This undoubtedly requires immense confidence and courage, a severe test for leaders. In contrast, downsizing a company is much easier; a lack of confidence is not a big problem—closing factories and laying off employees has immediate effects, and financial personnel readily approve it, making it a risk-free good decision.

The consequences of acting too early are far less severe than those of acting too late. If action is taken too early, the existing industry is still sound, and even if a wrong decision is made, it can be easily corrected in time.

Each company's golden action time is not the same. Some companies know when they should respond quickly and take action. They can wait for other companies to test the limits of technology and the capacity of the market before following, catching up, and surpassing them. I call this strategy the "taillight" method. Driving in fog is much easier when following the taillight of the car in front. The danger of the "taillight" strategy is that once you catch up and surpass the car in front, there are no taillights to guide you, leading to a loss of confidence and ability to find a new direction.

Pursuing a strategic goal, especially in a life-and-death competition, is not easy; it requires all the energy of the enterprise. There are several reasons for this. First, without a clear strategic direction, it is difficult to lead the enterprise out of the valley of death. A lot of energy has already been consumed to reach the current location, and employees are disheartened and blaming each other in the valley of death. In this case, even if the goal is clear and singular, reaching the other side is difficult; if there are multiple goals at the same time, it is impossible to lead this demoralized team.

If the path is wrong, you will die. However, most companies do not die due to choosing the wrong path, but due to indecision, wasting precious resources in the process of hesitant decision-making, ruining their future. The most dangerous thing is to remain stagnant.

When dealing with a large number of people, you should make every effort to communicate with them, clarify your opinions, and do whatever it takes. Constantly speak to employees, go to their workshops, gather them together, and repeatedly explain your intentions (pay special attention to answering questions like "So this means...," as this is often the best way to gain others' understanding). Your new ideas and arguments will take time to be accepted, but you will find that constant repetition will clarify the concept of the new direction and help employees understand it more thoroughly. Therefore, try to talk more, answer more questions; it may seem like a few old sayings turned upside down, but it actually serves to emphasize strategic thinking.

What we need is a balanced interaction between knowledgeable yet narrow-minded middle managers and visionary, big-picture senior managers to complement each other and act together. The opposition between the two can lead to intense debates, but it is through debate that everyone sees the clear picture on the other side of the valley of death, which is more conducive to determining the direction of progress. If a company can consistently handle these two developmental stages—debate (chaos reigns) and purposeful advancement (clearing chaos)—then it can be considered a strong and adaptive organization. Such organizations have two characteristics: 1. They tolerate debate and even encourage it. Intense and uncompromising debates revolve around issues that need to be studied, and participants in the debate can speak freely regardless of their position or background. 2. They can make clear decisions, accept clear decisions, and unite the entire organization to support that decision. Organizations with these two characteristics are better equipped to handle strategic turning points.

The scene on the other side of the valley of death represents a new industry order that is difficult to foresee before the transformation occurs. When managers have not seen this new world, they do not have a conceptual map in their minds. The process of crossing a strategic turning point must go through a period of confusion, experimentation, and chaos before thoughts can be clarified, a single direction determined, and the layers of fog cleared to reach the destination on the other side of the valley of death. We must listen to the prophecies of Cassandras, actively provoke debate, and continuously explain the company's new direction to make it clearer. Economic losses and personnel changes are inevitable. We must also recognize and accept the fact that not everyone can safely reach the other side; those who cannot survive will face a life that is vastly different from before. Undoubtedly, crossing the valley of death set by strategic turning points is the greatest ordeal that an organizational enterprise must endure. However, when the 10x factors press us, we have no choice but to adapt or succumb to inevitable decline.


Chapter 9: The Internet: Signal or Noise? Threat or Hope?#

In summary, the emergence of this miracle is the result of the combined effect of four factors: the continuous development of the internet, the feasibility of connecting a large number of computers on local networks to larger networks through "standard rail gauge," the spread of multimedia to personal computers, and Berners-Lee's retrieval methods. Just as a chemical substance with certain components can spontaneously ignite, these factors have greatly increased public interest in the internet.

In summary, the emergence of this miracle is the result of the combined effect of four factors: the continuous development of the internet, the feasibility of connecting a large number of computers on local networks to larger networks through "standard rail gauge," the spread of multimedia to personal computers, and Berners-Lee's retrieval methods. Just as a chemical substance with certain components can spontaneously ignite, these factors have greatly increased public interest in the internet.


Chapter 10: Career Turning Points#

I have always believed that everyone, whether an employee or a self-employed individual, is like an independent businessman. Your career is almost your business, and you are your own CEO. Just like the CEO of a large company, you must be responsible for market forces, fend off competitors, and leverage substitutes; there are other ways to do what you do, and you must be aware of these possibilities. Your responsibility is to protect your business from harm and to position yourself to benefit from changes in the work environment.

Many factors are involved in responding to strategic turning points. The most important and the most difficult is to be vigilant about changes in your environment. When you work internally in a company, you often escape the disturbances of many things in the world that relate to the good operation of the company you work for. When you got this job, even if you deep down knew it could not be the job you would do for the rest of your career, you might still silently give up your benefits for the company. However, ignoring the environment in which your company operates is like a CEO of a large company; you may also be the last to know that potential changes will affect your career.

· Do these anecdotes suggest that change may happen to you?
· How does a significant change indicate your situation?
· Can you find clues to this change in the business information released by the company?
· Can you predict that this change is about to happen to you based on the company's financial situation?
· Can you express your concerns to your boss?
· If you are affected by this change, what will you do?
· How likely is it that your company will be affected by industry changes?
· Are those industry changes temporary setbacks for your company, or signs of long-term industry restructuring? The distinction is crucial because your company can recover from the former without affecting your career; however, the latter will have lasting impacts on your company.
· Consider how developments in other industries might trigger a chain reaction in your work. When a new machine or computer system appears, will it change the way your department works? Can you use this new technology to do your job as before? Are you confident in learning this new method? If the answers are all negative, what should you do?
· Perhaps your company has lost to a competitor. What does this mean? Is it possible that your industry is fine, but your company has problems? Or is the entire industry undergoing a transformation? It is very important to raise and answer these questions because your standards for judging things change with the environment. If your company is losing to competitors, you can continue to leverage your skills; you just need to find a way to escape from this sinking ship and jump onto a ship that is more likely to successfully navigate the competitive waters. On the other hand, when the industry undergoes fundamental changes and you do not change your skills, you will have no foothold in either winning or losing companies. This situation can indeed be classified as a career turning point.

You always try to convince yourself: because you are excellent, you will not be affected by this change. You might think, "This may happen to others, but it has nothing to do with me." This is a dangerous thought. This is "success inertia" at work. There is no essential difference between career turning points triggered by environmental changes and those triggered by personal changes.

Denial can come from two completely different sources. If you have been very successful in your career, then the inertia of success may prevent you from recognizing danger. If you are merely hesitant, afraid of change, and afraid of giving up what you have achieved, then you may be unwilling to face the reality of your situation. Any form of denial requires you to spend time, causing you to miss the best moment to act at or near the turning point.

Just as in managing a business, people rarely have early thoughts about changing careers. Most of the time, when you look back, you will wish you had made the change sooner. In reality, making a change during the positive development phase of your existing job—when everything is going well—is much more painful than making the same change when your career begins to decline. Furthermore, if you are the first to leverage a career turning point, you may find the best opportunities in the new job. Simply put, the early bird catches the worm, while the latecomer only gets the leftovers.

The early sense of a career turning point is extremely valuable. Just as athletes train for competition, this is your time to train for change. Imagine yourself in different roles. Try to understand these roles. Talk to people who play these roles. Ask yourself some relevant questions. Ask yourself how you can excel in these roles. Train your mind for significant changes. Experimentation is a key method for preparing for change. That banker/stockbroker began preparing to transition to business news while still working as a stockbroker. This served several purposes: it improved his writing skills, tested the feasibility and practicality of future changes, and established connections with potential business resources before giving up his primary source of income. In doing so, he proved that if he fully committed to writing, he could indeed make a living.

When you start to cross the valley of death in your career, it is crucial to visualize what you want to achieve. Ask yourself the following questions:
· What do you think the characteristics of your industry will be in a year or two?
· Is this the industry you want to work in?
· Is your company in a favorable position for success in this industry?
· What skills do you need to advance in your career?
· Is there anyone who has set an example for you regarding the career achievements you want to realize?

Self-dialogue can help you recognize the existing career turning points, and dialogue about the nature of your future will help you focus and allow you to move forward steadily step by step, rather than rushing forward under the pressure of the external world. There are two treasures that can help you cross the valley of death in your career: clarity and conviction. Clarity refers to having a clear and accurate understanding of the direction of your career: knowing what your career will look like and also knowing what it should not look like. Conviction refers to your determination to cross the valley of death in your career, appearing on the other side of the position, meeting the standards you have already set. When a company crosses the valley of death, it involves navigating strategic turning points; the CEO must provide a clear description of the prospects of the new industry and lead the entire company to cross the valley together. As the CEO of your own career, you must also provide vision and commitment for yourself. Both are daunting. Through self-dialogue, clarifying the direction of progress, and waking up in the middle of the night full of doubts yet still firmly holding onto your conviction, both are difficult. However, you have no choice. If you remain passive and inactive, you will take action passively. As an individual, you only have one career, and your best chance of success at a career turning point is to seize it, focus, and go all out without any hesitation or wavering.

At such times, it is tempting to look back, but the negative consequences can be very frightening. Do not complain about things themselves; they will never return to the past. Invest all your energy in adapting to the new world, learning new skills, and shaping your environment. The old world has limited opportunities or none at all, while the new world offers you a brilliant future worth taking risks for.

I have always believed that everyone, whether an employee or a self-employed individual, is like an independent businessman. Your career is almost your business, and you are your own CEO. Just like the CEO of a large company, you must be responsible for market forces, fend off competitors, and leverage substitutes; there are other ways to do what you do, and you must be aware of these possibilities. Your responsibility is to protect your business from harm and to position yourself to benefit from changes in the work environment.

Many factors are involved in responding to strategic turning points. The most important and the most difficult is to be vigilant about changes in your environment. When you work internally in a company, you often escape the disturbances of many things in the world that relate to the good operation of the company you work for. When you got this job, even if you deep down knew it could not be the job you would do for the rest of your career, you might still silently give up your benefits for the company. However, ignoring the environment in which your company operates is like a CEO of a large company; you may also be the last to know that potential changes will affect your career.

· Do these anecdotes suggest that change may happen to you?
· How does a significant change indicate your situation?
· Can you find clues to this change in the business information released by the company?
· Can you predict that this change is about to happen to you based on the company's financial situation?
· Can you express your concerns to your boss?
· If you are affected by this change, what will you do?
· How likely is it that your company will be affected by industry changes?
· Are those industry changes temporary setbacks for your company, or signs of long-term industry restructuring? The distinction is crucial because your company can recover from the former without affecting your career; however, the latter will have lasting impacts on your company.
· Consider how developments in other industries might trigger a chain reaction in your work. When a new machine or computer system appears, will it change the way your department works? Can you use this new technology to do your job as before? Are you confident in learning this new method? If the answers are all negative, what should you do?
· Perhaps your company has lost to a competitor. What does this mean? Is it possible that your industry is fine, but your company has problems? Or is the entire industry undergoing a transformation? It is very important to raise and answer these questions because your standards for judging things change with the environment. If your company is losing to competitors, you can continue to leverage your skills; you just need to find a way to escape from this sinking ship and jump onto a ship that is more likely to successfully navigate the competitive waters. On the other hand, when the industry undergoes fundamental changes and you do not change your skills, you will have no foothold in either winning or losing companies. This situation can indeed be classified as a career turning point.

You always try to convince yourself: because you are excellent, you will not be affected by this change. You might think, "This may happen to others, but it has nothing to do with me." This is a dangerous thought. This is "success inertia" at work. There is no essential difference between career turning points triggered by environmental changes and those triggered by personal changes.

Denial can come from two completely different sources. If you have been very successful in your career, then the inertia of success may prevent you from recognizing danger. If you are merely hesitant, afraid of change, and afraid of giving up what you have achieved, then you may be unwilling to face the reality of your situation. Any form of denial requires you to spend time, causing you to miss the best moment to act at or near the turning point.

Just as in managing a business, people rarely have early thoughts about changing careers. Most of the time, when you look back, you will wish you had made the change sooner. In reality, making a change during the positive development phase of your existing job—when everything is going well—is much more painful than making the same change when your career begins to decline. Furthermore, if you are the first to leverage a career turning point, you may find the best opportunities in the new job. Simply put, the early bird catches the worm, while the latecomer only gets the leftovers.

The early sense of a career turning point is extremely valuable. Just as athletes train for competition, this is your time to train for change. Imagine yourself in different roles. Try to understand these roles. Talk to people who play these roles. Ask yourself some relevant questions. Ask yourself how you can excel in these roles. Train your mind for significant changes. Experimentation is a key method for preparing for change. That banker/stockbroker began preparing to transition to business news while still working as a stockbroker. This served several purposes: it improved his writing skills, tested the feasibility and practicality of future changes, and established connections with potential business resources before giving up his primary source of income. In doing so, he proved that if he fully committed to writing, he could indeed make a living.

When you start to cross the valley of death in your career, it is crucial to visualize what you want to achieve. Ask yourself the following questions:
· What do you think the characteristics of your industry will be in a year or two?
· Is this the industry you want to work in?
· Is your company in a favorable position for success in this industry?
· What skills do you need to advance in your career?
· Is there anyone who has set an example for you regarding the career achievements you want to realize?

Self-dialogue can help you recognize the existing career turning points, and dialogue about the nature of your future will help you focus and allow you to move forward steadily step by step, rather than rushing forward under the pressure of the external world. There are two treasures that can help you cross the valley of death in your career: clarity and conviction. Clarity refers to having a clear and accurate understanding of the direction of your career: knowing what your career will look like and also knowing what it should not look like. Conviction refers to your determination to cross the valley of death in your career, appearing on the other side of the position, meeting the standards you have already set. When a company crosses the valley of death, it involves navigating strategic turning points; the CEO must provide a clear description of the prospects of the new industry and lead the entire company to cross the valley together. As the CEO of your own career, you must also provide vision and commitment for yourself. Both are daunting. Through self-dialogue, clarifying the direction of progress, and waking up in the middle of the night full of doubts yet still firmly holding onto your conviction, both are difficult. However, you have no choice. If you remain passive and inactive, you will take action passively. As an individual, you only have one career, and your best chance of success at a career turning point is to seize it, focus, and go all out without any hesitation or wavering.

At such times, it is tempting to look back, but the negative consequences can be very frightening. Do not complain about things themselves; they will never return to the past. Invest all your energy in adapting to the new world, learning new skills, and shaping your environment. The old world has limited opportunities or none at all, while the new world offers you a brilliant future worth taking risks for.


Chapter 11: Life Turning Points#

But I have one last question: "So, why do you still want to perform the surgery yourself?" He thought for a moment and finally said, "You know, throughout the entire process of studying medicine, professors always instill in you the golden rule that prostate cancer must be treated with surgery; I think it still influences my thinking."

In Dr. Steinberg's article (the one I downloaded from COMPUSERVE when I first started this arduous journey), he said, "…when faced with a serious illness that we cannot understand, we all become childishly afraid and look for someone who can tell us what to do. For doctors, their highest responsibility is to present patients with various options for treating prostate cancer." I believe we are still far from this ideal.

But I have one last question: "So, why do you still want to perform the surgery yourself?" He thought for a moment and finally said, "You know, throughout the entire process of studying medicine, professors always instill in you the golden rule that prostate cancer must be treated with surgery; I think it still influences my thinking."

In Dr. Steinberg's article (the one I downloaded from COMPUSERVE when I first started this arduous journey), he said, "…when faced with a serious illness that we cannot understand, we all become childishly afraid and look for someone who can tell us what to do. For doctors, their highest responsibility is to present patients with various options for treating prostate cancer." I believe we are still far from this ideal.


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